La prochaine séance du séminaire commun CES-ENS Cachan et RITM-UPSud aura lieu jeudi 04 juin 2015 (14h-15h30) à Sceaux (adresse exacte ci-dessous). Nous aurons le plaisir de recevoir Aurélien EYQUEM (CREST-Ensai, U. Lyon 2) , qui nous présentera Fiscal Devaluations in a Monetary Union and the Extensive Margin of Trade (with Stéphane Auray and Xiaofei Ma).
Abstract: We quantify the effects of fiscal devaluations within a monetary union model with endogenous entry and endogenous tradability. First, permanent unilateral fiscal devaluations have large and permanent positive effects for countries that implement such policies, as they increase hours worked, consumption, GDP, produced and exported varieties. Second, as the model supports large positive cross-country comovements of GDP and consumption through endogenous tradability and the expansion of the trade sector, unilateral fiscal devaluations also have positive effects on neighbors. We identify positive spillovers to other members of the monetary union in terms of economic activity and in terms of welfare. Both results suggest that permanent fiscal devaluations are an efficient and non-aggressive policy option for governments that belong to a monetary union. The timing of reforms and their potential preannouncements also crucially matter for the resulting short term dynamics and welfare gains, but are neutral in the long term.
Lieu du séminaire :
Université Paris Sud – Faculté Jean Monnet
Salle Gaudemet
Bâtiment D – 1er étage
54, Boulevard Desgranges, Sceaux
RER B Station Robinson
Le programme du séminaire pour l’année 2014-2015 est disponible à l’adresse suivante : http://www.ritm.u-psud.fr/seminaires/hotelling/
Pour vous rendre à la Faculté Jean Monnet, consultez le lien ci-joint : http://www.jm.u-psud.fr/fr/la_faculte2/venir_a_la_faculte.html
Cordialement,
Les organisateurs
Nathalie Etchart-Vincent
José de Sousa