Jean-Noël Senne participated to the joint OECD-EASO conference “From panic to planning – unpacking the policy toolbox to anticipate migration trends” which was held at the OECD Conference in Paris (16th june 2017). The aim of the conference was to bring together researchers, field actors and policy makers to discuss available statistical tools to better forecast and manage migration flows.
He presented the first results of a study on the role diaspora networks play in the localization choice of asylum seekers, using recent bilateral data on monthly asylum applications in the EU (Eurostat). Estimating a gravity equation with more than 100 countries of origin and 28 countries of destination over the period 2008-2016, the results shows that, accounting for major ‘push factors’ (such as political instability, civil and ethnic conflicts or human rights abuse at origin) and ‘pull factors’ (such as GDP, unemployment rate and migration policies at destination), a 10% increase in the size of diaspora already present in the destination country is associated with an almost 3% increase in the number of asylum applications from citizens of the same origin country. Besides, almost 20% of the total variability in asylum applications can be explained by diaspora effects. This effect is somewhat stronger for male and young-adults applicants from the Middle-East and Sub-Saharan Africa, and is driven by recent diasporas.