La prochaine séance du séminaire commun CES-ENS Cachan et RITM-UPSud aura lieu jeudi 22 janvier 2015 de 14h à 15h30 à Cachan (adresse exacte ci-dessous).
Nous aurons le plaisir de recevoir Howard Chernick (City University of New York) qui nous présentera “Consumption Taxes, Income Taxes, and Revenue Stability: States and the Great Recession” (avec C. Reimers).
Abstract: This paper challenges the conventional wisdom that taxes on consumption are more stable through the business cycle than taxes on personal income, using the Great Recession as a test case. We first estimate the effect of tax shares from the personal income tax and taxes on consumption on the level and distribution of tax burdens across states, using Citizens for Tax Justice microsimulation estimates for all states. We find that while both higher income tax shares and higher consumption tax shares are associated with higher average tax burdens, a higher income tax share increases state progressivity, while a higher consumption tax share makes the tax burden more regressive. We then estimate a regression of tax change on tax burdens and AGI changes by income slice. We find that states with highly unequal income distributions and concentrations of capital gains had more volatile tax bases, but that this volatility did not systematically translate into more volatile tax revenues. We then use predicted tax burdens from the first stage to simulate the change in state taxes during the Great Recession. Finally, we simulate the effect of bringing a state’s tax structure to national average income and consumption tax shares. Contrary to expectation, we find that states with the greatest reliance on the income tax would have experienced more volatility with a more balanced tax structure, while states with the least reliance would have experienced less volatility. Though there were a few states with higher income tax shares and greater volatility – e.g., California and New Jersey – some states with no income tax – e.g., Florida and Nevada –suffered the greatest hits from the recession. The conclusion is striking, and important for tax design.
Lieu du séminaire:
Bâtiment Cournot – 5ème étage – salle 513
61, avenue du président Wilson, Cachan
RER B Station Bagneux-Pont Royal
Le programme du séminaire pour l’année 2014-2015 est disponible ici
José de Sousa