The next Economics Seminar of Paris-Saclay will take place on Thursday, April 20 from 12h15 to 13h15. Rémi Generoso (U. Lille) will present “ The financial cost of US farm income support payments under climate change.” (joint with Cécile Couharde)
Abstract:
The paper assesses the financial cost of federal farm programs in mitigating income losses due to drier conditions expected from climate change. Our study encompasses agricultural-producing counties within the conterminous United States during the census years from 2002 to 2017. We quantify historical drought patterns and their projected trends for the near (2020-2049) and more distant (2030-2059) future, using climate reanalysis data and 20 downscaled global circulation model products from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. We estimate the relationship between agricultural payments and climate change by analyzing how farm income losses due to drier conditions affect the magnitude and distribution of income support payments under the RCP 8.5 scenario. We predict that, under unmitigated climate change, income support payments should significantly increase, with a greater likelihood of much larger financial costs when accounting for statistical and climate uncertainties.