Amrita Kulka (University of Warwick) will present her paper “Population Centers and Coordination: Evidence from County-Seat Wars,” co-authored with Cory Smith (University of Maryland).
Abstract: When and how historical shocks select spatial equilibria from among plausible alternatives remains poorly understood. We study this process using a regression discontinuity design exploiting close elections for “county seats” (capitals) in the frontier United States. These political contests coordinated incoming migrants’ settlement choices across otherwise similar locations. Winning towns quickly became their counties’ population centers and experienced agglomeration benefits in amenities and income associated with larger cities. Local public sectors were historically small and not significant for these processes. Coordination was limited to counties’ early histories, with little possible thereafter. The results support models of coordination through self-fulfilling expectations..
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