Faculty Profile

Working Papers

“Jobless Industrialization and Trade Liberalization: Evidence from RTA Enactments” 
[PDF on SSRN]

Abstract
This paper investigates whether trade liberalization has promoted industrialization over the past 30 years by using the enactments of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) as a proxy for trade liberalization. Leveraging panel data from 51 economies between 1990 and 2018, I employ a novel two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation to establish causality and address confounding factors. The findings reveal that RTAs have increased the share of manufacturing value-added and output per worker while decreasing production concentration in agriculture. Notably, these effects are not accompanied by a rise in manufacturing employment, suggesting that RTAs have promoted "jobless industrialization"—boosting manufacturing output without increasing labor in the sector. This trend is primarily driven by Developed Asian and Sub-Saharan African economies while Developing Asian and Latin American economies drive the increase in manufacturing labor productivity.

Selected Work in Progress

“On the Anticipation Effects of Free Trade Agreements” 
with [Jose De Sousa]

Abstract
Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have been a key policy tool for trade liberalization since the mid-20th century. Trade literature, primarily using gravity models, has traditionally focused on the enforcement date of RTAs as the main event for analyzing their impact. We investigate anticipation effects by distinguishing between RTA signature and enforcement dates. Leveraging the uncertainty surrounding enforcement timelines, we construct a novel bilateral country-pair dataset that separately records these dates and integrates detailed trade data. Preliminary findings indicate a small but negative relationship between RTA signing and trade, suggesting that the uncertainty generated by the waiting period between the signature and the enactment diminishes trade. Plausible contamination effects between the coefficients of signature and enforcement motivate the usage of difference in difference estimators incorporating heterogeneous treatment effects to reliably distinguish between the effects of signature and enactment.

“Worker Mobility and Occupations: Evidence from France” 
with [Alex Newnham]

Abstract
Most research on internal migration overlooks the cost of occupational switching, potentially overestimating the true cost of geographical mobility. We first provide empirical evidence on how occupational characteristics influence workers’ geographic mobility decisions. To further analyze this relationship, we develop a dynamic choice model that accounts for both location and occupation selection. This approach contributes to the ongoing debate on declining internal migration by incorporating occupational choice into mobility analysis. Using detailed administrative data on French workers, we find that when occupational characteristics are considered, estimated geographical mobility costs are significantly lower.

“Trade and Firm-Level Adjustments to Geopolitical Shifts: Evidence from Armenia” 

Abstract
This paper examines the substantial change in Armenia's trade patterns of the Western sanctions on Russia in 2022. Using newly available employer-employee level and customs data from 2018–2023, I analyze the relationships between trade activity and firm performance and the relative advantages that trade sanctions have generated for Armenian firms. The findings reveal that sanctions led to a decline in employment among exporters and a higher entry rate of Armenian firms, specifically to the non-Western markets, implying smaller firms were able to participate in trade. Additionally, Armenia's role as a regional trade intermediary has expanded, with increased imports into Russia and greater diversification of traded goods with both Sanctioning and neutral economies. These insights provide valuable evidence for policymakers aiming to enhance economic resilience and labor market stability in a shifting geopolitical landscape.